INTERNET SECURITY: 10 Predictions for 2003
According to internet security analysts at MI2G, the threat to online data as well as command and control systems posed by hacking, computer viruses, worms and other forms of malware will continue to escalate.
Below ten predictions for the coming year
1. Successful overt digital attacks - as opposed to scans, attempts or covert attacks - are predicted to follow the trend albeit more slowly
- established over the last seven years and could number between 120,000
and 140,000 worldwide in 2003. Blended attacks - physical attacks synchronised with digital attacks - could materialize in the coming two
years. Although new viruses and worms released in 2003 may reduce, the damage caused by a few killer viruses or worms - some politically
motivated - will remain in Billions of Dollars. [In 2002, overt digital attacks worldwide have already crossed 76,986 in comparison to 31,322
for 2001. Internet sniffing of SCADA, PLC and DCS systems has increased. In 2002, the most damaging viruses/worms were the .H and .E mutations of Klez and Bugbear.]
2. If the war with Iraq in early 2003 materialises, USA will remain one of the most attacked countries followed by other NATO member
countries and allies. Successful overt attacks against the US are
likely to be between 40,000 and 50,000 in 2003. [In 2002, overt digital
attacks against the US crossed 28,377 in comparison to 8,779 for 2001.
The other most attacked countries in 2002 were Brazil, UK, Germany, Italy, Canada, France, Denmark and Australia. In comparison, in 2001 the most attacked countries other than the US and Brazil were China,
Taiwan, Mexico, Thailand, Bolivia and Argentina.]
3. There will be increasing consolidation and unity in 2003 between
fundamentalist and anti-capitalist hacker groups with a united agenda
against Western interests. The Israel-Palestine conflict, the US/UK War
on Terrorism as well as the India-Pakistan issue on Kashmir will
continue to bring fundamentalist hackers closer to each other. Eastern
European, Central Asian, Indonesian and Malaysian hacking groups will
continue to assist the fundamentalist agenda. [Throughout 2002,
existing pro-Islamic hacking groups increased their activity and new macro-groups were formed such as USG, AIC and WFD. Anti-capitalist groups such as S4t4n1c_S0uls also increased their activity.]
4. There could be a backlash on Arab world and other Islamic countries' online presence from Western vigilante hacker groups in 2003
if pro-Islamic hacking and consequent online damage of Western economic interests continues apace. [Between March and May 1999, when NATO bombed Serbia, sympathetic hacking communities on both sides attacked each other's businesses and government online targets.]
5. If there is a destabilizing impact of the war with Iraq on
certain Islamic countries such as Saudi Arabia or Pakistan, and they are subsequently engaged in internal conflict, the digital attacks within
those countries and across their neighbours could rise sharply. [The ongoing Russian internal war with Chechnya along with the siege of the Moscow theatre in October, caused the number of digital attacks on Russian online systems to rocket upwards suddenly in November 2002 from
an average of 20 per month to about 100.]
6. Proliferation of broadband (24/7 always on) internet services will result in small to medium size entities as well as individual users (micro entities) coming under more frequent hacker and virus attack. Identity theft, credit-card theft as well as customer/personnel data and
software piracy will increase as digital crime proliferates in 2003. Unsuspecting individuals and small to medium size businesses with broadband access could also become surrogates for increasingly targeted Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks. [In 2002, 52% of all successful overt digital attacks worldwide took place on small entities,
38% on micro entities, 7% on medium entities and 3% on large entities. In comparison, the percentage numbers for small and micro entities were
lower and large entities were much higher in 2001.]
7. Brazil will continue to remain the capital and main exporter for hacking activity worldwide in 2003. Brazilian hackers could collaborate
with anti-capitalist and fundamentalist groups throughout the world in
2003. Eastern Europe will continue being the centre for virus and malicious code development as well as sophisticated hacker attacks by
criminal syndicates seeking to carry out financial fraud as well as illicit credit card numbers theft and sale activity. [In 2001 and 2002,
the major hacking groups active have been primarily Brazilian and Eastern European, followed by pro-Islamic and anti-capitalist groups.]
8. 2003 will see the emergence of all encompassing Internet Service
Provider (ISP) solutions departing from the traditional component based internet or security services approach to a more complete model offering broadband internet access, mail and web hosting, on the fly virus detection, spam filtering, firewall cover as well as sophisticated
intrusion detection and authentication services.
9. In 2003, people policies, legal issues as well as specific
digital insurance cover will increasingly be seen as interdependent constituents of a more holistic approach to digital risk management
strategy - alongside layered firewalls and anti-virus tool kits - by the boards of directors.
10. The number of digital attacks reported in most parts of Africa, Central Asia, Greenland and Antarctica will remain negligible. The
connection between software vulnerabilities, digital attacks, economic damages and vendor liabilities will become more obvious in 2003.
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